TSX Today: What to Watch for in Stocks on Thursday, June 18

Canadian stocks fell sharply on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% but signalled a more cautious policy outlook as inflation remains above its 2% target. This cautious policy outlook, coupled with a drop in precious metals prices, drove the S&P/TSX Composite Index down by 264 points, or 0.7%, to 35,125, snapping its four-session winning streak.

Nearly all key market sectors finished lower, with industrial, mining, and technology stocks leading the TSX decline, while only a handful of financial shares managed to hold up.

The Fed’s updated economic projections

The Fed’s updated projections showed officials now expect PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation to reach 3.6% in 2026, up sharply from their March estimate of 2.7%, while the projected year-end federal funds rate also rose to 3.8%.

The hawkish tone pressured investor sentiment, as markets reassessed expectations for rate cuts later this year. The Fed also noted that economic activity remains solid despite elevated uncertainty tied partly to the Middle East conflict, while strong capital investment and steady job gains continue to support the U.S. economy.

Top TSX Composite movers and active stocks

AbraSilver Resource, Lundin Mining, Silvercorp Metals, and Mullen Group were the worst-performing TSX stocks for the day, as they plunged by at least 5% each.

Toromont Industries (TSX:TIH) was also among the day’s bottom performers on the Toronto Stock Exchange, as its shares plunged more than 4% to $205.71 apiece. While there was no company-specific news during trading hours to explain the decline, it later announced that its AVL Manufacturing unit had secured about $1 billion in firm orders, with deliveries expected to occur largely in 2027.

After the closing bell, Toromont also said it’s evaluating additional production capacity, including acquiring land for a new facility near Hamilton, Ontario, to support future demand. The update highlighted strong backlog growth and expansion opportunities in its Power Systems business, suggesting TIH stock’s weakness was more likely driven by broader market pressures than company fundamentals.

On the brighter side, Gildan Activewear, MDA Space, Great-West Lifeco, and EQB climbed by at least 2.7% each, making them the session’s top-performing TSX stocks.

Based on their daily trade volume, Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, Telus, Enbridge, and B2Gold were the five most active stocks on the exchange.

TSX today

Crude oil prices continued to decline, but gold and silver showed a rebound in early trading on Thursday. Given these mixed commodity price movements and the broader risk-off sentiment following the Fed’s policy update, the TSX could see a cautious start today.

While no major domestic economic releases are due, Canadian investors may want to keep an eye on the latest U.S. manufacturing data this morning.

Meanwhile, investors will continue to digest the Federal Reserve’s updated economic projections and policy outlook. With Fed officials raising their inflation forecasts and signalling a slower path toward rate cuts, market participants are likely to remain sensitive to incoming economic data and interest rate expectations.

Canadian investors will also react to the newly signed U.S.-Iran agreement, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing some sanctions on Iran. The deal has helped reduce global energy supply concerns and could remain a key driver of commodity prices and market sentiment.

On the corporate events front, the TSX-listed Empire Company will release its latest earnings report today.

Market movers on the TSX today

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  Fool contributor Jitendra Parashar has positions in Canadian Natural Resources, Enbridge, and MDA Space. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Mullen Group. The Motley Fool recommends B2Gold, Canadian Natural Resources, EQB, Enbridge, MDA Space, and TELUS. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.