Memecoin Market May Be Breaking Down, Santiment Warns

Memecoins have taken a beating recently, and what looks like a rout may be closer to a turning point than many traders expect.

Santiment said the sector is showing a classic capitulation signal: widespread talk that meme tokens are “dead” can sometimes mark the moment when buyers quietly return.

According to Santiment, this “collective acceptance of the ‘end of the meme era’ is a classic capitulation signal,” pointing out that when a sector of the market is deemed worthless, it is often the “contrarian time” to take note of.

Sentiment on social channels has tilted heavily toward fear, and when the crowd gives up on a whole category, prices can move the opposite way for a while. Some traders who stepped back early are now watching closely.

Capitulation Can Signal A Turn

Reports note that the memecoin market’s recent slide has been steep in raw numbers. Total memecoin market capitalization dropped 34% to $31 billion over the past 30 days, CoinMarketCap data shows.

Bitcoin’s pullback — which hit near $60,000 on Feb. 3, the lowest since October 2024 — added pressure across the board and left speculative tokens more exposed.

Positioning was concentrated in a handful of names, and when large holders moved to take profits the moves were amplified.

Losses were not confined to tiny projects; some of the better known meme tokens gave up meaningful ground.

Rotation May Not Lift All Boats

Some market observers argue that the old pattern — Bitcoin runs first, then money flows into Ethereum, then to riskier altcoins — may not play out the same way this time around.

As institutions grow and trading strategies change, capital could flow more selectively. That means a few tokens might rally strongly while many others are left behind.

Reports from traders and analysts say selective strength, rather than a broad upswing, is a likely scenario. That raises the bar for anyone hoping to find the next big winner among dozens of speculative coins.

A handful of headline tokens led the decline. Dogecoin (DOGE) gave up support levels it had defended earlier, and PEPE showed heightened volatility as big holders trimmed positions.

Official Trump (TRUMP), the politically tied token linked to US President Donald Trump, retraced sharply from its launch highs after the initial hype faded.

Heavy concentration of supply in a few wallets left these projects vulnerable to rapid swings, and some gains from last year were erased in short order.

Contrarian traders will point to the admission of defeat across social feeds as a potential signal to start watching for a bottom.

That approach is risky. Losses can deepen before the market finds a floor, and sellers may return on any short-lived recovery.

Still, history shows that extreme pessimism can preface meaningful rebounds, especially when broader market pressure eases and liquidity returns.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView