Infosys Stock Nears ₹1,000 for the First Time in Nearly 5 Years; How Much Further Can It Fall?

Synopsis: Infosys shares have fallen near Rs. 1,000 amid AI-driven disruption fears and weak global IT demand. Despite oversold technicals and strong fundamentals, sentiment remains weak, with support seen around Rs. 950–Rs. 920 if Rs. 1,000 breaks.

The shares of this company provides consulting, technology, outsourcing and next-generation digital services to enable clients to execute strategies for their digital transformation are in the spotlight after falling by 37 per cent last year and trading near 2020 levels.

With a market capitalisation of Rs. 4,08,192 cr, the shares of Infosys Ltd closed at Rs. 1006 per share, decreasing 3% in today’s session, down from its previous close of Rs. 1,036.70 per share. The stock has delivered a negative return of 36% over the past five years. It is down 37% over the last year, 38% year-to-date, and 38% over the last six months, with a 16% decline in the past month. The stock is currently trading at Sept 2020 levels. 

Why the Stock Is Falling

Shares of Infosys have traded near a five-year low, experiencing a 36% drop over the course of the year. The steep decline has been heavily driven by global factors, including market anxiety over AI-led disruptions that could automate software development and decrease the demand for traditional technology services. 

Additional pressures include geopolitical tensions such as the US-Iran war and global IT major Accenture trimming its full-year FY2026 revenue growth guidance down to 3%–4%.

Despite the overarching market fears, Infosys Chairman Nandan Nilekani addressed shareholders at the company’s 45th Annual General Meeting, reassuring them that the firm views the AI revolution as a major growth opportunity rather than an existential threat.

From a technical standpoint, the stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood below 31, indicating that it was trading close to an oversold zone while remaining below major short- and long-term moving averages.

Market analysts hold mixed views on the stock’s next move. Institutional firms like PL Capital maintain a bullish stance with a ‘Buy’ call and a price target of Rs. 1,570, which is 56% upside from current levels, while JM Financial has named Infosys its top pick. 

How Much Further Could It Fall

Technical analysts are fairly aligned on near-term support zones, though they disagree on direction beyond that. One analysis suggests that the stock is in a weak trend as long as it stays below Rs. 1,180, so buying aggressively at current levels is not advised. It highlights Rs. 1,000 as the key immediate support level, and warns that if this level breaks, the stock could fall further toward the Rs. 950–Rs. 920 range.

A more constructive technical read suggests Rs. 1,020 is the immediate support and stop-loss zone, and a decisive break below it could drag the stock toward the psychological Rs. 1,000 mark and lower, while a sustained hold above Rs. 1,125 could open a path back toward Rs. 1,180. The stock’s RSI has been below 31, in oversold territory, which technically argues for a bounce, but oversold conditions can persist for a while in a sector-wide downtrend rather than reversing immediately. 

What Would Determine the Next Move

The honest answer is that nobody can pin an exact floor; this is sentiment-driven, sector-wide selling layered on top of a structural debate about AI’s impact on services demand, and both of those are inherently hard to model precisely. 

What’s worth watching: the July 23 earnings print and FY27 guidance, since a miss or weak guidance could validate the bears’ fear of a structural slowdown and open the door toward that Rs. 950–920 zone; conversely, a steady or upbeat outlook on AI-led deal pipelines could trigger the kind of relief rally Infosys already saw briefly after Nilekani’s AGM comments. 

Dividend yield (Infosys typically pays out a large share of profits) and valuation compression versus historical multiples are also factors long-term investors will weigh against the AI-disruption narrative.

Key things to watch are the July 23 earnings results and FY27 guidance. A weak performance or cautious outlook could reinforce concerns about a structural slowdown and push the stock toward the Rs. 950–Rs. 920 range. On the other hand, a stable or positive commentary on AI-driven deal wins could spark a relief rally, similar to the brief bounce seen after Nilekani’s AGM remarks.

For long-term investors, attention will also be on dividend payouts (since Infosys typically distributes a large portion of its profits) and valuation levels, especially as multiples compress compared to historical averages amid the ongoing AI disruption concerns.

On the financial front, it reported a steady performance in Q4FY26. Revenue increased 13% YoY to Rs. 46,402 crore from Rs. 40,925 crore in Q4FY25, while EBITDA also rose 13% YoY to Rs. 11,167 crore from Rs. 9,874 crore. Net profit grew 21% YoY to Rs. 8,509 crore compared to Rs. 7,038 crore in the year-ago period, with EPS increasing 24% to Rs. 20.96 from Rs. 16.93.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on tradebrains.in are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution while investing or trading in stocks. Trade Brains Technologies Private Limited or the author are not liable for any losses caused as a result of the decision based on this article. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.

The post Infosys Stock Nears ₹1,000 for the First Time in Nearly 5 Years; How Much Further Can It Fall? appeared first on Trade Brains.