1 Ideal TSX Dividend Stock, Down 68%, to Buy and Hold for a Lifetime

Valued at a market cap of $1.8 billion, Spin Master (TSX:TOY) stock is down almost 70% from its all-time high. However, the ongoing pullback has increased the forward yield to over 2.5% as of April 2026.

Spin Master has trailed the broader markets in recent years due to the tariff war, retail inventory cuts, and headwinds in the Melissa & Doug business segment. Alternatively, the TSX dividend stock could gain momentum on the back of a growing digital games portfolio and an upcoming PAW Patrol movie.

Tariffs rattled U.S. consumer confidence in 2025. Retailers, nervous about demand, started cutting back on orders and drawing down their inventory stockpiles instead of replenishing them. That hurt Spin Master’s toy sales even though consumer point-of-sale data, actual purchases by real shoppers, grew year over year.

In other words, people were still buying Spin Master products. The retailers just weren’t restocking as aggressively, creating a mismatch between what was selling and what Spin Master was shipping.

CFO Jonathan Roiter addressed this directly on the company’s Q4 earnings call. He noted that toy gross product sales declined 8% in 2025, driven almost entirely by an estimated 12% reduction in retailer inventory levels.

Critically, he added that the company does not expect significant further reductions, which means the drag that hurt 2025 results is unlikely to repeat.

Melissa & Doug, the wooden toy brand that Spin Master acquired, took the sharpest hit. Almost all of its sales were in the U.S., and nearly all of its manufacturing was in China, a tough combination in a tariff environment.

The company took a non-cash goodwill impairment charge as a result. That’s a painful write-down, but it’s also a one-time accounting adjustment, not a sign of a broken business.

The bull case for the TSX dividend stock

Despite ongoing headwinds, Spin Master generated $308 million in operating cash flow in 2025. It returned $80 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, reducing its share count by approximately 7% over the past three years.

• Revenue in the digital games business rose 20% year over year. This growth was tied to stronger engagement on Toca Boca World and growing subscription momentum in Piknik.
• Adjusted operating income in Digital Games rose 24% in Q4. This is a high-margin, fast-growing part of the business that the market tends to overlook when it’s fixated on tariff headlines.

CEO Christina Miller outlined three core priorities on the earnings call: capturing the PAW Patrol movie moment, fully realizing Toca Boca’s potential, and returning Melissa & Doug to growth.

The PAW Patrol film releases globally in August. The company will recognize approximately $20 million in distribution revenue in the third quarter, per Roiter, with additional upside if the movie outperforms at the box office.

Retailer feedback from New York Toy Fair was described as “very positive,” and Spin Master’s movie-related toy lineup for PAW Patrol is already generating excitement.

Melissa & Doug is expanding internationally, gaining shelf space, introducing new product lines, including infant products, and targeting new retail doors in both the U.S. and Europe.

The dividend is poised to grow

Spin Master pays shareholders an annual dividend of $0.48 per share, which translates to a yield of 2.6%. Analysts forecast the small-cap TSX stock to expand its free cash flow (FCF) from $109.6 million in 2026 to $211 million in 2030.

Comparatively, an annual dividend expense of roughly $49 million indicates a payout ratio of 45%, which is not too high. A widening FCF base could translate to a higher dividend payout, enhancing the yield at cost for early investors.

Spin Master is a buy-and-hold story, not a get-rich-quick trade. The stock may stay choppy as tariff headlines continue. But for investors with a long-term view, buying a company with iconic children’s brands, a growing digital platform, and strong cash generation, at a 68% discount is the kind of opportunity that tends to look obvious in hindsight.

The post 1 Ideal TSX Dividend Stock, Down 68%, to Buy and Hold for a Lifetime appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada.

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Fool contributor Aditya Raghunath has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.